## Prediction
- **Next 6 hours (20:00–02:00):** Rain arriving shortly, likely light but persistent, with fog possible by late evening. Temperature will ease from 17.1°C to around 15–16°C. Humidity stays very high (~85–100%).
- **6–24 hours (02:00–20:00 Thu):** Rain tapers off by early morning, then a partly cloudy day with a brief dry spell. By Thursday evening, showers and a rumble of thunder are possible as another disturbance moves in. Temperatures recover to near 16°C by Thursday afternoon.
## Why (the pattern)
- **Pressure is the key signal:** Station pressure has fallen ~11 hPa in 12 hours and is dropping at ~2.9 hPa/hr — a rapid, sustained fall. This strongly indicates an approaching low-pressure system, consistent with the MET model showing rain within 3 hours.
- **Humidity surge (+20.9% in 3 hrs, +61.8% in 12 hrs)** confirms moist air advection ahead of the low — supports imminent precipitation.
- **Temperature is stable now** (only -0.4°C in 3 hrs) despite the big 12-hr drop, meaning the cold front hasn't fully arrived yet; the rain band is the leading edge.
- **MET model agrees** on rain/fog in the short term and a drier midday window, then renewed thunder risk by +24h. Station data and model align well for the next 6–12h; I weight the station's rapid pressure fall heavily for the immediate rain onset.
## Confidence
- **Medium-High** for rain arriving within 3–6 hours and the general wet-to-drier-to-showery sequence.
- **Lower confidence** on exact timing of the thunder Thursday evening — the model shows it but with 0 mm precip, suggesting a weak or marginal event.
- Local pattern data is still building (only ~2 days of history), but the pressure tendency is unambiguous and matches the regional model, so the core forecast is solid.
Last updated: 2026-08-05 20:09:58
Temperature spikes due to direct sunlight are filtered for more accurate forecasts.